Dave Karger
December 19, 2008 AT 09:51 PM EST

This week sees the opening of one film that’s sure to score at least a couple Oscar nominations (The Wrestler) and one that’s a very deserving long shot in two acting categories (Nothing But the Truth) but has the misfortune of being released by a newly-bankrupt company. 


Best Bets

Best Actor, Mickey Rourke
Asked by Today‘s Matt Lauer if he was surprised when he received a Golden Globe nomination last week, Rourke responded, “No.” How refreshingly honest. He won’t be shocked when he gets his first Oscar nod either.

Best Original Song, “The Wrestler”
Bruce Springsteen’s sensitive track perfectly captures the film’s often melancholy tone.


Best Supporting Actress, Marisa Tomei
The past winner in this category is on the bubble for a nomination this year, fighting with Amy Adams and Rosemarie DeWitt for the final slot. I think she just may get it.

Best Original Screenplay, Robert Siegel
The more Rourke talks about how he wrote some of his character’s most memorable dialogue, the more Siegel’s chances at a nomination fade.

Long shots

Best Picture
The movie was recognized by the National Board of Review, AFI, and Broadcast Critics. But it just may be a bit too scrappy for the Academy.

Best Director, Darren Aronofsky
Rourke and Tomei are getting so much attention for their work in the film that it’s easy to overlook Aronofsky’s understated direction.


Long shots

Best Actress, Kate Beckinsale
The British beauty turns in easily her best performance ever as a reporter to goes to jail after refusing to identify a source.

Best Supporting Actress, Vera Farmiga
She’s not on screen for a long time, but Farmiga’s turn as an outed CIA agent is absolutely riveting. And her character is part of one of the most shocking plot twists of the year.

addCredit(“Niko Tavernise”)

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