Nicole Sperling
April 24, 2010 AT 03:44 PM EDT

Image Credit: DreamWorks AnimationYou know you’ve fallen out of A-list territory when your new release can’t beat a 5-week old animated movie about dragons. But such is the case for Jennifer Lopez and her romantic comedy The Back-Up Plan. The PG-13 comedy about a single mom who finds love after starting a family on her own likely won the top spot Friday night with an estimated $4 million. But prognosticators believe that lead won’t last through the weekend. Most put the Alan Poul-directed film finishing around $12 million for the three-day frame, while Dreamworks Animation’s How to Train Your Dragon will earn around $16 million based on its Friday take of $3.7 million. Likely to hold the lead with a scant 16% drop, Dragon is now on track to top $180 million by the end of the weekend.

Early results show Date Night nabbing the third spot with a $10 million take for the three-day period. The Steve Carell, Tina Fey-laugher only fell 40% last evening, a drop that will likely result in the PG-13 comedy grossing a total of $63 million by the end of the weekend.

Last weekend’s topper Kick-Ass and this weekend’s other new release, The Losers, will battle it out for the fourth spot. Kick-Ass’s early results are bound to leave  fan boys — who were counting on strong word-of-mouth to buoy the picture its second weekend in theaters — disappointed. Matthew Vaughn’s unique take on the superhero genre is likely to fall around 62% for the frame, making it unlikely the R-rated flick will even see double-digits its second weekend in theaters. Early results are showing a Friday take of $2.8 million translating into a $9 million three-day cume. The Losers, starring Jeffrey Dean Morgan and Zoe Saldana, isn’t faring much better. The film’s Friday number is a bit higher than Kick-Ass, at a little over $3 million, but it’s also looking at a $9 million opening frame.

Perhaps betting on dragons isn’t such a dumb idea after all. Check back tomorrow for complete results.

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