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Oscar predictions: Did Melissa Leo torpedo her campaign?

Since my last round of predictions, two major Oscar-related events have taken place. The Writers Guild Awards were handed out to The Social Network and Inception, and Melissa Leo released her own (now controversial) campaign ads. Though Leo has been applauded by some for her chutzpah, I’ve talked to a few Academy members who now say they’re less likely to vote for her after the faux-fur-filled photos. I actually had True Grit’s Hailee Steinfeld at the top of my supporting-actress rankings before the ads came out. At this point it could go either way. Here are my current predictions.

BEST PICTURE
1. The King’s Speech (last week: 1)
2. The Social Network (last week: 2)
3. The Fighter (last week: 3)
4. True Grit (last week: 4)
5. Inception (last week: 5)
6. Toy Story 3 (last week: 7)
7. Black Swan (last week: 6)
8. 127 Hours (last week: 8 )
9. Winter’s Bone (last week: 10)
10. The Kids Are All Right (last week: 9)

BEST DIRECTOR
1. David Fincher, The Social Network (last week: 1)
2. Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech (last week: 2)
3. David O. Russell, The Fighter (last week: 4)
4. Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit (last week: 3)
5. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan (last week: 5)

BEST ACTOR
1. Colin Firth, The King’s Speech (last week: 1)
2. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network (last week: 2)
3. James Franco, 127 Hours (last week: 3)
4. Javier Bardem, Biutiful (last week: 4)
5. Jeff Bridges, True Grit (last week: 5)

BEST ACTRESS
1. Natalie Portman, Black Swan (last week: 1)
2. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right (last week: 2)
3. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone (last week: 3)
4. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (last week: 5)
5. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine (last week: 4)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Christian Bale, The Fighter (last week: 1)
2. Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech (last week: 2)
3. Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right (last week: 3)
4. John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone (last week: 4)
5. Jeremy Renner, The Town (last week: 5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (last week: 1)
2. Melissa Leo, The Fighter (last week: 2)
3. Amy Adams, The Fighter (last week: 3)
4. Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech (last week: 4)
5. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom (last week: 5)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. The King’s Speech (last week: 1)
2. Inception (last week: 3)
3. The Kids Are All Right (last week: 2)
4. The Fighter (last week: 4)
5. Another Year (last week: 5)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. The Social Network (last week: 1)
2. Toy Story 3 (last week: 2)
3. True Grit (last week: 3)
4. Winter’s Bone (last week: 4)
5. 127 Hours (last week: 5)

Want to try to beat my predictions? Check out our Battle of the Ballots Oscar prediction game. And follow me on Twitter (@davekarger) for Oscar updates.

Originally posted February 10 2011 — 6:31 PM EST

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