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What I got wrong, and right, in my Emmy predictions

Never have I been so glad to be wrong… in just a couple of Emmy categories. I’m certainly not going to whine about not predicting such superb surprise nominations as Louie CK, Timothy Olyphant, and Walton Goggins.

Yes, I’m doing my due diligence in following up on my Emmy predictions post yesterday; I owe it to you to own up to my miscalculations… and crow about my perspicacity!

Of the 13 categories I ventured guesses for, I did predict every nominee in three major categories: Best Drama, Best Comedy, and Best Supporting Actress.

In five categories, I calculated correctly five out of six nominations in each: Drama Actress (Mireille Enos bested my Katey Sagal notion), Comedy Actress (surprise Melissa McCarthy over my pick, Patricia Heaton), Comedy Supporting Actor (Jesse Tyler Ferguson made it a sweep for Modern Family actors, over my Neil Patrick Harris guess), Drama Supporting Actress (Michelle Forbes instead of Debra Winger), and Reality Competition (not The Voice; instead, So You Think You Can Dance – hello, Cat Deeley!).

In four categories, I guessed four out of six correctly: Comedy Actor (yay, Louie CK; alas, Joel McHale; welcome Johnny Galecki over my Rob Lowe suggestion), Drama Actor (my Tom Selleck theory was supplanted by Emmy perrennial fave Hugh Laurie; super-hurrah for Timothy Olyphant, instead of my Sean Bean guess), Drama Supporting Actor (Josh Charles and Walton Goggins, two terrific nominations, instead of my Michael Pitt and – sob! – John Noble), and Variety Series (Bill Maher instead of my Letterman, and I picked the wrong Jimmy: Kimmel over Fallon).

Alas, I only had a 50% success rate in the Reality Series category: Antique Roadshow was nominated instead of Pawn Stars (guess I’m too down-market in my pawning), Hoarders got the nod instead of Dirty Jobs (but isn’t it a dirty job cleaning up after a hoarder?), and Undercover Boss was nommed instead of Intervention (some of those employers need an intervention).

So: I think that makes 62 correct predictions out of 78 potential slots. I’m no math wiz, but that’s a good percentage, isn’t it? (Can you tell I’m vamping until one of you tell me what that exact percentage would be?)

Oh, and to my colleagues Lynette Rice and James Hibbard, regarding their post on egregious snubs, with all due respect: Hell-o, where were Community and Parenthood!?

Twitter: @kentucker

For more: Emmy nominations 2011

Ken Tucker’s Emmy predictions

Originally posted July 14 2011 — 1:48 PM EDT

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