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Ricky Martin, set your alarm for Tuesday! We predict this year's Tony nominees

Evita Ricky Martin

(Richard Termine)

The Tony Awards season is heating up. The Tony administration committee met today to decide eligibility for various categories: One Man, Two Guvnors will compete for best (new) play despite a push from its producers to be considered in the less-competitive revival category (the comedy is loosely based on Carlo Goldoni’s 1743 play Servant of Two Masters). James Earl Jones will be up for Lead Actor in a Play for Gore Vidal’s The Best Man. Ricky Martin will contend as Featured Actor in a Musical even though his name is above the title of Evita. And in a real head-scratcher, Newsies sidekick Ben Fankhauser is up for Lead Actor in a Musical even though he has less stage time than Martin and not a single solo number.

But whose names will be called when Kristin Chenoweth and Jim Parsons announce the nominations this Tuesday at 8:30 a.m.? After the jump, check out our predictions in the major categories. (The awards will be handed out June 10 at the Beacon Theatre, in a Neil Patrick Harris-hosted ceremony airing on CBS.) Disagree with our picks? Well, that’s why the gods of theater (and websites) created the comments section!

Best Musical
Leap of Faith
Nice Work If You Can Get It

Newsies and Once are sure things. Nice Work is a safe bet. But the fourth slot could go to any of three shows without a lot of critical support: Ghost, Leap of Faith, or Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark.

Best Play
Clybourne Park
One Man, Two Guvnors
Other Desert Cities
Peter and the Starcatcher

The first three on this list are locks. Other plays vying for that fourth slot include The Columnist, The Lyons, and The Mountaintop.

Best Musical Revival
The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess
Jesus Christ Superstar

Best Play Revival
Death of a Salesman
Gore Vidal’s The Best Man
A Streetcar Named Desire

Best Actress, Musical
Jan Maxwell, Follies
Audra McDonald, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess
Cristin Milioti, Once
Kelli O’Hara, Nice Work If You Can Get It
Bernadette Peters, Follies

In this scenario, Elena Roger fails to make the cut for Evita.

Best Actor, Musical
Danny Burstein, Follies
Raul Esparza, Leap of Faith
Jeremy Jordan, Newsies
Steve Kazee, Once
Norm Lewis, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess

Burstein, Jordan, Kazee, and Lewis are all sure things. The fifth slot is a showdown between four-time nominee Esparza, Matthew Broderick (Nice Work If You Can Get It), and Reeve Carney (Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark).

Best Actress, Play
Nina Arianda, Venus in Fur
Tracie Bennett, End of the Rainbow
Stockard Channing, Other Desert Cities
Linda Lavin, The Lyons
Cynthia Nixon, Wit

This is arguably the year’s most competitive category. Nixon has the weakest claim on a nomination. Her slot could easily go to one of three others: Angela Bassett (The Mountaintop), Nicole Ari Parker (A Streetcar Named Desire), or Tyne Daly (Master Class).

Best Actor, Play
James Corden, One Man, Two Guvnors
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Death of a Salesman
James Earl Jones, Gore Vidal’s The Best Man
John Lithgow, The Columnist
Alan Rickman, Seminar

The final nod could also go to either Stacy Keach (Other Desert Cities) or Samuel L. Jackson (The Mountaintop).

Featured Actress, Musical
Jayne Houdyshell, Follies
Judy Kaye, Nice Work If You Can Get It
Elaine Page, Follies
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Ghost
NaTasha Yvette Williams, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess

Melissa van der Schyff has received Outer Critics and Drama Desk nods for playing Clyde’s uptight sister-in-law in the short-lived Bonnie & Clyde. But if I were in charge, Lindsay Nicole Chambers would be recognized for her scene-stealing turn in the equally short-lived Lysistrata Jones.

Featured Actor, Musical
Phillip Boykin, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess
Michael Cerveris, Evita
Ricky Martin, Evita
Michael McGrath, Nice Work If You Can Get It
Patrick Page, Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark

Martin’s chances for a nomination improve with his shift from the lead actor category, but a nomination ain’t necessarily so. For one thing, Porgy and Bess star David Alan Grier could sneak into his slot.

Featured Actress, Play
Linda Emond, Death of a Salesman
Spencer Kayden, Don’t Dress for Dinner
Angela Lansbury, Gore Vidal’s The Best Man
Judith Light, Other Desert Cities
Annie Parisse, Clybourne Park

Featured Actor, Play
Christian Borle, Peter and the Starcatcher
Tom Edden, One Man, Two Guvnors
Andrew Garfield, Death of a Salesman
Jeremy Shamos, Clybourne Park
Frank Wood, Clybourne Park

Director, Play
Nicholas Hytner, One Man, Two Guvnors
Pam MacKinnon, Clybourne Park
Joe Mantello, Other Desert Cities
Mike Nichols, Death of a Salesman

Director, Musical
Jeff Calhoun, Newsies
Michael Grandage, Evita
Eric Schaeffer, Follies
John Tiffany, Once

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