By now, Hollywood has had a couple of days to digest the Oscar nominations. And all of the industry’s swami-like prognosticators are staring into their crystal balls trying to divine whether Bradley Cooper has a shot to beat out Daniel Day-Lewis or if Argo – even without a Best Director nod for Ben Affleck – can still pull a stunning upset in the Best Picture race. But 300 miles or so east of L.A., a different group of Nostradamuses (or is it Nostradami?) didn’t need long at all to jump into the horse race.
That’s right, the bookmakers in Las Vegas have published their Oscar odds and if you’re feeling frisky – and you have a few disposable bucks to get in on the action – you could wind up winning a bundle on February 24th. Not that we encourage wagering, mind you.
Okay, so with that disclaimer out of the way, let’s take a look at what the Sin City number crunchers have to say about the main races.
The frontrunner in the Best Supporting Actor category is The Master’s Philip Seymour Hoffman at 11/10. Which means if you bet 10 bucks and he wins, you’d win 11. Granted, that’s not a very good return on investment. But if the longshot, Django Unchained’s Christoph Waltz wins at 20/1, well, that’s a bingo! The other nominees in descending order are Lincoln’s Tommy Lee Jones at 6/5, and Argo’s Alan Arkin and Silver Linings Playbook’s Robert De Niro tied at 10/1.
In the Best Supporting Actress race, it looks like it’s Anne Hathaway’s to lose for Les Miserables. She’s a 1/12 favorite. After her are Lincoln’s Sally Field at 12/1, The Sessions’ Helen Hunt at 14/1, The Master’s Amy Adams at 20/1, and Silver Linings Playbook’s poor Jacki Weaver at 33/1. Hey, it’s an honor just to be nominated, right?
For Best Actor, Daniel Day-Lewis not surprisingly is the frontrunner at 1/10. Followed by Les Mis’ Hugh Jackman at 10/1, Flight’s Denzel Washington at 14/1, The Master’s Joaquin Phoenix at 16/1, and Silver Linings Playbook’s Bradley Cooper at 22/1.
And in the Best Actress category, Vegas loves Jennifer Lawrence, giving her the edge at 4/7, followed by Zero Dark Thirty’s Jessica Chastain at 7/4, Amour’s Emanuelle Riva at 10/1, The Impossible’s Naomi Watts at 20/1, and finally, nine-year-old Beasts of the Southern Wild star Quvenzhane Wallis at 33/1.
Finally, in the biggest race of the night, the bookmakers seem to agree with the long-held assumption that the film with the most nominations will take home Best Picture. That means it will be a big night for Steven Spielberg’s Lincoln. After that, it looks like it could be anyone’s race (unless you’re Beasts of the Southern Wild). Here’s the breakdown…
Les Miserables: 10/1
Zero Dark Thirty: 12/1
The Silver Linings Playbook: 16/1
Life of Pi: 16/1
Django Unchained: 50/1
Beasts of the Southern Wild: 100/1.
Will any of this help you out in your office Oscar pool, probably not. The Oscars are always full of at least one or two surprises. And you know what would be the nicest surprise of all? If you laid down 10 bucks on Beasts of the Southern Wild and it won. You’d be $1,000 richer.
Now, who do you think will win? And what longshot would you put your money on? Hypothetically speaking, of course.