Tony Barbera
Devan Coggan
May 28, 2015 AT 12:00 PM EDT

After those disappointing Memorial Day numbers, this weekend should be at least a little more exciting thanks to Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson’s San Andreas. Like Johnson said in his recent Saturday Night Live monologue: He’s the person to call “if you want to make sure the box office is thumpin’.’”

That’s evident from Johnson’s other 2015 blockbuster, too: Furious 7 just reached a worldwide total of $1.5 billion, making it only the fourth film to do so. It’s slowly creeping up on The Avengers’ global total of $1.519 billion, which is especially impressive considering that Furious 7 has “only” made $348.1 million in North America—a stark contrast to The Avengers’ $623.4 million domestic total. All in all, it’s a good week to be The Rock.

But San Andreas isn’t the only movie out this weekend: Cameron Crowe’s Aloha will hope to weather bad reviews to make an impact at the box office. Will that happen? Here’s how this weekend’s box office race might play out:

1. San Andreas — $40 million

The reviews for Brad Peyton’s CGI-heavy disaster movie have only been fair, but most are still expecting San Andreas to land somewhere around the $40 million mark. That’s a much better forecast than other recent disaster porn movies — including 2014’s Into The Storm, another Warner Bros. release, which only debuted to $17.3 million — likely due to Johnson’s current star power.

2. Tomorrowland — $16.5 million

Tomorrowland was the poster child for the disappointing Memorial Day weekend grosses, bringing in $33 million over the three-day period. Disney kept most of the plot details under wraps ahead of time, but now that the movie’s out, it may benefit from some word-of-mouth — especially because it’s the only big PG-rated film in theaters. If Tomorrowland sees the standard 50 percent drop as it enters its second week, it’ll bring in about $16.5 million.

3. Pitch Perfect 2 — $15.4 million

After debuting to an aca-mazing $69.2 million, Pitch Perfect 2 fell about 55 percent over Memorial Day weekend. A smaller decline should be expected as it enters week three, and if it decreases about 50 percent, PP2 should bring in about $15.4 million.

4. Mad Max: Fury Road — $14.8 million

As one of the most critically adored films in theaters right now, Mad Max has actually beaten Pitch Perfect 2 and Tomorrowland in the daily box office race over the last few weekdays. It brought in a very healthy $24.6 million last weekend, only falling about 46 percent. Positive buzz should help it keep up its momentum, so expect it to only drop about 40 percent.

5. Aloha — $12 million

The fifth-place spot is a bit of a toss-up. Cameron Crowe’s Aloha is the newcomer, and most are predicting that it will take fifth place with an expected $12 million. Still, the preliminary reviews have been, well, not great, and the project’s been dogged by controversy after the Media Action Network for Asian Americans and multiple Hawaiian activists criticized the film for depicting a white-washed version of the islands

If Aloha underperforms (some are predicting it’ll only bring in $8 to $10 million), the fifth spot will probably go to Avengers: Age of Ultron. Whatever happens, Age of Ultron is still in great shape: Last weekend, it brought its worldwide total up to $1.28 billion, surpassing Frozen to become the sixth highest grossing film of all time. 

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