Mining for Gold

Independent Film Project
WHO THEY ARE The Independent Spirit Awards group is made up of filmmakers and performers from the indie-film community.
FOUNDED 1986
WHO VOTES A 13-member panel picks the nominees, and the IFP's 9,000 members vote on the winners
MEMBERSHIP REQUIREMENTS Anyone working in film — professional or student — can become a dues-paying member.
IMPORTANT DATES Nominations: Nov. 29; Ceremony: March 4, in a tent on the beach in Santa Monica (airs on the Independent Film Channel)
CRYSTAL BALL QUOTIENT Low. There's usually very little overlap with the Oscars, except in the acting and writing categories.

Los Angeles Film Critics Association
WHO THEY ARE Hollywood's hometown film critics' group is made up of reviewers for print, online, and broadcast media.
FOUNDED 1975
WHO VOTES About 50 members
MEMBERSHIP REQUIREMENTS You must be an actively publishing critic and must be voted in by current members.
IMPORTANT DATES Awards announced: Dec. 10; Ceremony: Jan. 17, Park Hyatt Hotel in Los Angeles.
CRYSTAL BALL QUOTIENT Low. LAFCA tends to prize arthouse fare (American Splendor, In the Bedroom). In 30 years, the group has agreed with Oscar on the Best Picture just seven times.

National Board of Review
WHO THEY ARE Founded in the early days of cinema as a panel of censors, the Board has evolved into a film appreciation society, consisting of academics, students, and other New York area film buffs.
FOUNDED 1909; started giving out awards in 1929
WHO VOTES There are 150 voting members.
MEMBERSHIP REQUIREMENTS You must be recommended for membership by two current members.
IMPORTANT DATES Awards announced: Dec. 12; Ceremony, Jan. 10, New York's Tavern on the Green restaurant
CRYSTAL BALL QUOTIENT Fairly high. The New Hampshire Primary of film awards, the NBR winner's list is usually first out of the gate every year. That helps the Board set the awards season agenda (they put Halle Berry's Monster's Ball performance on the map, for instance), and the group's spread-the-wealth approach to prize-giving covers a lot of bases. This year, however, a balloting snafu kept the NBR from releasing its list until after several critics' groups had announced theirs, so the board may have less influence this year.

National Society of Film Critics
WHO THEY ARE Critics from prominent national magazines and newspapers
FOUNDED 1966
WHO VOTES About 55 members
MEMBERSHIP REQUIREMENTS You must be an actively publishing critic and must be voted in by current members.
IMPORTANT DATES Luncheon ceremony where awards are voted on and announced: Jan. 6, Sardi's restaurant in New York
CRYSTAL BALL QUOTIENT Low. The group likes indie movies, foreign films, and comedies, all of which Oscar tends to snub. In 38 years, they've picked the Best Picture Oscar winner just three times. In 39 years, they've picked the Best Picture Oscar winner just four times, though last year, they were practically the only group who correctly predicted Million Dollar Baby over Sideways.

New York Film Critics Circle
WHO THEY ARE The oldest of the regional film critics' groups, the NYFCC is made up of Big Apple-based critics for newspapers and national magazines.
FOUNDED 1935
WHO VOTES There are about 30 members.
MEMBERSHIP REQUIREMENTS Membership is very exclusive; over the past 71 years, only 130 critics have belonged to the group. Some active critics are invited to join, others apply.
IMPORTANT DATES Awards announced: Dec. 12; Ceremony: Jan. 8, New York's Cipriani's 42nd Street restaurant.
CRYSTAL BALL QUOTIENT Moderate. Though fond of indie and arthouse movies, the NYFCC claims a 40 percent accuracy rate in predicting the Best Picture Oscar.

Producers Guild of America
WHO THEY ARE Trade group representing producers of movies and TV shows
FOUNDED The Guild started giving out the awards, called Golden Laurels, in 1990.
WHO VOTES The PGA has 2,200 members.
MEMBERSHIP REQUIREMENTS To join, you must be a producer with credits and personal references from recent film or TV projects.
IMPORTANT DATES Nominations: Jan. 4; Ceremony: Jan. 22, Los Angeles' Universal City Hilton.
CRYSTAL BALL QUOTIENT High. In 16 years, they've missed the Best Picture Oscar winner just four times, and they always get at least three of the five Oscar nominees right.

Screen Actors Guild
WHO THEY ARE The union to which America's movie and TV actors belong
FOUNDED The SAG Awards were first given in 1995.
WHO VOTES 2,100 randomly chosen members pick the nominees, and the entire active Guild membership (about 100,000 actors) picks the winners.
MEMBERSHIP REQUIREMENTS You must be an actor employed by a firm with a Guild contract or be an active member of an affiliated actors' union.
IMPORTANT DATES Nominations: Jan. 5; Ceremony: Jan. 29, Shrine Auditorium in Los Angeles (airs on TNT)
CRYSTAL BALL QUOTIENT Moderately high. Actors, after all, make up the largest branch of the Academy, so there's a fair amount of overlap among the choices.