Karger's Oscar Watch

Best Picture

Dave Karger sizes up the Best Picture race. ''Million Dollar'' is Dave's baby

Predicted Winner Million Dollar Baby
Possible Upsets The Aviator
No Way Sideways, Finding Neverland, Ray

In 18 of the last 20 years, the film with the most nominations has won Best Picture. But you have to look long and hard to find many Academy members who are passionate about The Aviator. Voters seem impressed by it, but not many are moved by it. Enter Million Dollar Baby, a film with four fewer nods than The Aviator, but arguably four times the emotional impact. Sideways’ victories at the Screen Actors Guild awards and the Writers Guild awards indicate some support, but it’ll be the larger productions that prevail, and specifically, the larger production that made the voters cry.