Spring's finally here, time to slam down the books, break out the bikinis, and hit the sun -- or at least find a dark theater to watch young adults in bikinis chasing sex, sun, and the perfect, amnesia producing kegger. Well, no upcoming movies fit this bill exactly, but there ARE four raunchy new releases that hope to warm Spring Break audiences: the Farrelly Brothers produced ''Say It Isn't So'' opened last week, to be followed by the bachelor -centric ''Tomcats'' (March 30). And two gross out comedies, ''Joe Dirt'' and Tom Green's ''Freddy Got Fingered,'' are coming in April. But with so much competition, will any of these movies score at the box office?
Of all the recent flicks that cashed in on frolicking young adults, two stand out: ''American Pie'' (which grossed $102 million in 1999) and last summer's ''Road Trip'' ($68.2 million). Both were low cost features with no big stars, but with a winning combination of outrageous comedy (Tom Green's dining on a rodent in ''Road Trip'') and raunchy high jinks (Jason Biggs' rendezvous with a baked dessert in ''Pie'') that analysts say is tough to match.
''Outlandish humor that really pushes the envelope -- that's what this audience wants,'' says Paul Dergarabedian of box office tracking firm Exhibitor Relations. ''Each film needs one really shocking scene that people can go back to. That's what starts the buzz,'' adds Robert Bucksbaum of Reel Source. '''American Pie' had it, 'Road Trip' had it; these movies need it, too.''
EW.com gives you the verdict on which of this year's lewd, crude movies will score, and which will die lonely.
''Say It Isn't So'' (in theaters)
STARS Chris Klein (''American Pie''), Heather Graham
THE PITCH A young man searching for his parents is mistakenly informed that the woman he loves is his sister.
FOR IT ''Say'''s association with gross out kings Peter and Bobby Farrelly (''There's Something About Mary'') is touted in the trailers. Also, it's the first spring break film out of the gate. ''The timing is right on it,'' says Dergarabedian.
AGAINST IT ''A young man searching for his parents is just not a funny concept,'' says Bucksbaum. ''In fact, it's kind of tragic. And it has nothing in common with 'Mary.'''
THE VERDICT Most audiences will just say no.
''Tomcats'' (March 30)
STARS Jerry O'Connell (''Mission to Mars''), Shannon Elizabeth (''American Pie'')
THE PITCH Buddies bet on who among them will be the last remaining bachelor. Seven years later, one tries to force his pal to marry so he can pay off a gambling debt.
FOR IT According to those who have seen ''Tomcats,'' it's a genuinely funny movie with a jaw dropping scene involving the use of a sensitive part of the male anatomy as a souvenir. ''Everyone's going to be talking about this film,'' says Bucksbaum. '''Tomcats' just says spring break to me,'' agrees Dergarabedian.
AGAINST IT Jerry O'Who? Elizabeth is a Maxim cover girl, but she doesn't yet have marquee clout, and the rest of the cast are virtual unknowns. Then again, ''Road Trip'' didn't have any stars either.
THE VERDICT ''Tomcats'' has the best chance at the kitty.
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