The Better Half

Well, that was all quite sweet and nice, watching 24 talented young singers complete an exercise in wish fulfillment by advancing to American Idol's season 5 semifinals. But now whaddya say we get real.

Over the course of the next three weeks, the field will be slashed in half, with only a dozen hopefuls — six women and six men — who'll remain standing when the last four unlucky semifinalists get the boot on March 9.

That's a harsh reality, but what's even crueler is the fact that a select few contenders are already galloping down the racetrack while others are still stuck in the starting gate. Sorry, Pollyannas, but anyone who tells you otherwise hasn't been glued to their set for this season's previous nine episodes. Indeed, in much the same way film directors try to tell us how to feel with simple musical cues (often despite what's happening on the screen in front of us), so too Idol's producers manipulate us by carefully editing audition reels and providing sympathetic backstories for their own personal favorites.

With that in mind, let's look at which singers are pretty much guaranteed one of the 12 coveted positions, which ones might not be as solid as initially thought, and which might ones be only one awesome performance away from upsetting the producers' best-laid plans. We'll do as Mom always told us, and go with ladies first:

The sure things Yes, she's got detractors who say she doesn't deserve a shot on Idol because her grandmother is famous in the world of gospel music (as if the MTV crowd really cares deeply about the Ann Nesby connection), but y'all better recognize: Paris Bennett making the final 12 is as inevitable as Ellen DeGeneres dancing on her morning talk show. Bennett's unique take on ''Fever'' tonight cemented it. Likewise, while Katharine McPhee's melismatic vocal stylings aren't for everyone (myself included), there's no denying that her ''My Funny Valentine'' showcased a serious set of pipes. Come on, you can't actually envision the finals without the Rachael Ray look-alike, can you? Lastly, Mandisa Hundley — who from here on out I will refer to as Mandisa! — was already a front-runner based on her revelatory Hollywood-week takes on ''Dim All the Lights'' and ''Band of Gold,'' but by confronting Simon tonight over the cruel remarks he made about her weight at her initial audition, the zaftig stunner claimed Idol status in households across the nation. Tell it!

The vulnerable favorites I know a lot of folks on our message boards have been touting 16-year-old Lisa Tucker, but to my ears, her a cappella ''House Is Not a Home'' was built on a shaky foundation. As for Kellie Pickler, while her hard-luck story won her a lot of audience sympathy early on, her gosh-golly-''you like me'' shtick is close to becoming grating, don'tcha think?

The intriguing long shots Rebecca O'Donohue's ''Dream a Little Dream of Me'' tonight did nothing to convince me that she's a great singer, but this is America, people: Sometimes being a Babeasaurus Rex is enough. Likewise, buxom blonde Heather Cox — a woman I cannot recall seeing once this season — wasn't half bad performing ''Ain't No Mountain High Enough.'' She just might be this season's Jessica Sierra (and I mean that in the nicest possible way).

Snowball's chance Blink and you missed this season's collective footage of Melissa McGhee and Kinnik Sky, a fact that will make it an uphill battle for either diva to develop a sizable fan base. Meanwhile, as much as the producers have showcased basketballer Ayla Brown and trash talker Brenna Gethers in recent weeks, I can't recall a single memorable musical moment from either (aside from Gethers' midperformance booty slap during ''Sugar Pie Honey Bunch'').

Hell to the no! Wait a sec, the judges actually liked hearing Stephanie Scott's melody-mauling rendition of ''I Believe in You and Me''?

As with their fairer counterparts, I'm guessing that half the men's finalist positions are already spoken for. To wit:

The sure things Chris Daughtry's voice is so distinctive and soulful (I still can't forget his ''First Cut Is the Deepest'') that if he doesn't make the final 12, I'll be one of the nine U.S. TV viewers who'll make the switch to Joey once NBC pits it against Idol on Tuesdays in March. (Plus, did anyone notice his Valerie Cherish hand gesture when the judges gave him the thumbs-up? Righteous!) Mildly convulsin' harmonica-playin' soul man Taylor Hicks, meanwhile, seems poised to supplant Anderson Cooper as the nation's primary prematurely gray lust object. And as for Kevin Covais, I know Simon says only the octogenarian set will vote for him, but he's wrong. Because last time I checked, I wasn't an AARP member, mmmkay?

The vulnerable favorites Ace Young's ''She's Out of My Life'' was so pretty that the magically coiffed dude will either be with us all the way till May or be a backing vocalist on this summer's Color Me Badd reunion tour. And while William Makar's ''Bridge Over Troubled Water'' was spot-on, what happens if he and Mr. Covais split the retiree vote?

The intriguing long shots I don't know why, but Patrick Hall reminds me a little of Lost's Ian Somerhalder — with a really good singing voice. Elliott Yamin, on the other hand, looks more like the guy who works at the local pizza parlor, that is, until his megawatt smile lights up the room. Either one could become a fan favorite with one breakout performance, kind of like Bo Bice's ''Whipping Post'' last season.

Snowball's chance Robert Bennett Jr. will have to overcome a lack of screen time, while William ''Bucky'' Covington and Jose ''Sway'' Penala will have to overcome their groan-inducing nicknames. As for Gedeon McKinney, he'll have to overcome a cocky rant (which included the phrase ''You have to have it'' repeated three times fast) that prompted Simon's best comment of the night: ''I think if I had heard that speech, I would've said 'no.' ''

Hell to the no! David Radford. Two words for you: John Stevens.

What do you think? Have any of my surefire selections failed to set your world on fire? Are you ready to set me on fire for dissing someone who sets your heart aflame? And which low-profile singer do you think is most likely to burn up the stage next week?

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