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Tony Awards: Melissa Rose Bernardo's predictions | 174315__rabbit_l
NIXON (WITH TYNE DALY) IN RABBIT HOLE

The Tony Awards are fast approaching, and everyone's dying to know: What will presenter Julia Roberts wear? And who will win? On June 11 (8 p.m., CBS), we'll see who takes the trophies in some of the tightest races in years; here, we predict the victors and possible spoilers in all 24 categories.

Best Play
NOMINEES The History Boys, by Alan Bennett; The Lieutenant of Inishmore, by Martin McDonagh; Rabbit Hole, by David Lindsay-Abaire; Shining City, by Conor McPherson
WINNER History. Bennett's academic opus is virtually unstoppable.
SPOILER Inishmore. Don't underestimate four-time Best Play nominee McDonagh.

Best Musical
NOMINEES The Color Purple, The Drowsy Chaperone, Jersey Boys, The Wedding Singer
WINNER Jersey Boys. It gives the jukebox musical a good name. Plus, out-of-town voters want it to play their cities.
SPOILER Chaperone. It got 13 nominations, and theater lovers are in a tap-dancing tizzy over the frothy tuner.

Lead Actor in a Play
NOMINEES Ralph Fiennes, Faith Healer; Richard Griffiths, The History Boys; Zeljko Ivanek, The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial; Oliver Platt, Shining City; David Wilmot, The Lieutenant of Inishmore
WINNER Griffiths, who won every major award in the U.K. and U.S.
SPOILER Fellow Brit Fiennes, the ''fantastic'' faith healer himself.

Lead Actress in a Play
NOMINEES Kate Burton, The Constant Wife; Judy Kaye, Souvenir; Lisa Kron, Well; Cynthia Nixon, Rabbit Hole; Lynn Redgrave, The Constant Wife
WINNER Nixon. The stage stalwart/TV star was a revelation as Rabbit's grieving mom.
SPOILER Grey's Anatomy matriarch Burton will get some votes, but she's no match for Nixon.

Lead Actor in a Musical
NOMINEES Michael Cerveris, Sweeney Todd; Harry Connick Jr., The Pajama Game; Stephen Lynch, The Wedding Singer; Bob Martin, The Drowsy Chaperone; John Lloyd Young, Jersey Boys
WINNER Young, whose Frankie Valli is Jersey's heart and soul.
SPOILER Cerveris (Todd's bloody brilliant barber) or Pajama heartthrob Connick.

Lead Actress in a Musical
NOMINEES Sutton Foster, The Drowsy Chaperone; LaChanze, The Color Purple; Patti LuPone, Sweeney Todd; Kelli O'Hara, The Pajama Game; Chita Rivera, Chita Rivera: The Dancer's Life
WINNER LuPone, who tears into her role as a cannibalistic pie maker. Plus, she plays the tuba!
SPOILER None. Did we mention the tuba?

Book of a Musical
NOMINEES The Color Purple (Marsha Norman); The Drowsy Chaperone (Bob Martin and Don McKellar); Jersey Boys (Marshall Brickman and Rick Elice); The Wedding Singer (Chad Beguelin and Tim Herlihy)
WINNER The Drowsy Chaperone — it's the perfect way to reward the show and Martin, its affable star.
SPOILER Jersey Boys. The reason this show works so well — nay, works at all — is the cleverly constructed book, courtesy of Annie Hall Academy Award winner Brickman and ex-adman Rick Elice.

Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics)
NOMINEES The Color Purple (Music and Lyrics: Brenda Russell, Allee Willis, Stephen Bray); The Drowsy Chaperone (Music and Lyrics: Lisa Lambert and Greg Morrison); The Wedding Singer (Music: Matthew Sklar; Lyrics: Chad Beguelin); The Woman in White (Music: Andrew Lloyd Webber; Lyrics: David Zippel)
WINNER Chaperone's toe-tapping tunes.
SPOILER None, though Wedding Singer should grab a few votes from '80s lovers.

Revival of a Play
NOMINEES Awake and Sing!, The Constant Wife, Edward Albee's Seascape, Faith Healer
WINNER Awake and Sing!, a glorious restaging of Clifford Odets' still-vibrant 71-year-old script.
SPOILER Faith Healer. It's tough to pull off Brian Friel's monologue-laden play.

Revival of a Musical
NOMINEES The Pajama Game, Sweeney Todd, The Threepenny Opera
WINNER The stripped-down Sweeney, perhaps the most heralded show of the season.
SPOILER Pajama Game. Even Sweeney lovers had a great time at the Roundabout's rollicking revival.

Featured Actor in a Play
NOMINEES Samuel Barnett, The History Boys; Domhnall Gleeson, The Lieutenant of Inishmore; Ian McDiarmid, Faith Healer; Mark Ruffalo, Awake and Sing!; Pablo Schreiber, Awake and Sing!
WINNER Barnett, the doe-eyed History Boy with the heartbreaking crush on a classmate.
SPOILER McDiarmid, whose hammy but tender turn as a beer-swilling talent manager actually steals Faith Healer from Ralph Fiennes.

Featured Actress in a Play
NOMINEES Tyne Daly, Rabbit Hole; Frances de la Tour, The History Boys; Jayne Houdyshell, Well; Alison Pill, The Lieutenant of Inishmore; Zoë Wanamaker, Awake and Sing!
WINNER De la Tour, riding the History Boys wave.
SPOILER Anyone except Pill. Daly was devastating as Cynthia Nixon's meddling mother in Rabbit Hole; Midwestern mom Houdyshell, firmly fixed in a La-Z-Boy, was Well's breakout star; and Wanamaker — who should probably have been in the lead category — gives a gutsy, gorgeous performance as Awake and Sing!'s tough-as-nails Jewish mama.

Featured Actor in a Musical
NOMINEES Danny Burstein, The Drowsy Chaperone; Jim Dale, The Threepenny Opera; Brandon Victor Dixon, The Color Purple; Manoel Felciano, Sweeney Todd; Christian Hoff, Jersey Boys
WINNER Hoff has a slight edge as the Four Seasons' smart-mouthed ex-con, Tommy DeVito.
SPOILER Dale — a veteran performer doing a stellar job in a stinker of a show — could pull through.

Featured Actress in a Musical
NOMINEES Carolee Carmello, Lestat; Felicia P. Fields, The Color Purple; Megan Lawrence, The Pajama Game; Beth Leavel, The Drowsy Chaperone; Elisabeth Withers-Mendes, The Color Purple
WINNER Queen-of-the-slow-burn Leavel, who plays the titular drunken (code word: drowsy) chaperone.
SPOILER Lawrence's turn as loopy secretary Gladys will earn a few votes.

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