Look out John Travolta, there's a new badass in town. ''Lara Croft: Tomb Raider,'' starring Angelina Jolie, should blast past ''Swordfish,'' earning as much as $45 million this weekend -- and reinvigorating the oft-maligned genre of joystick-inspired films in the process. In fact, ''Tomb Raider'' looks set to outpace the $70.4 million earned by 1995's ''Mortal Kombat'' -- the highest grossing videogame adaptation ever -- within its first 10 days of release, according to Gitesh Pandya, editor of boxofficeguru.com.
Though the action film should draw a healthy turnout of fans of the top-selling game series, analysts say clever casting and a marketing campaign that actually downplays Lara Croft's digital roots will help ensure that the movie avoids the fate of predecessors like 1993's ''Super Mario Brothers'' (which grossed $20 million) and 1999's ''Wing Commander'' ($11.5 million).
''Even though you get some dollars from the video game fans, you need to attract the people like me to make a blockbuster. I've never touched a joystick and I'm dying to see this film,'' says Pandya. Adds Robert Bucksbaum of box office tracking firm Reel Source: ''Paramount has done a phenomenal job of making Jolie look like probably the sexiest star in history: exotic, strong, and tough to appeal to women and gorgeous for the guys.''
Another adventure opening in wide release, Walt Disney's animated ''Atlantis,'' should secure the No. 2 spot. But analysts are at odds over whether the traditional, nonmusical toon will be hurt by competition from the computer-generated comedy ''Shrek,'' which is likely to finish at No. 3 (with $11 million to $15 million). ''Kids can see hand-drawn cartoons on Saturday mornings for free,'' says Bucksbaum, who expects ''Atlantis'' to open with $17.5 million. Pandya says Disney's brand power alone should ensure a $27 million debut. And Dan Marks, vice president of ACNielsen, agrees. ''Some parents won't trust their kids to anything BUT a Disney movie,'' he points out. ''Disney. Atlantis. Those are powerful words.''
Travolta's ''Swordfish'' should drop to fourth place with $10 million to $11 million, losing about 40 percent of its thrill hungry audience to Jolie. The alien invasion comedy ''Evolution'' will battle the fast-sinking ''Pearl Harbor'' for the No. 5 spot. Both films are expected to earn between $8 and $9 million. ''I don't think anybody thought 'Harbor' would keep dropping 50 percent week by week like this,'' says Bucksbaum. Call it a sneak attack.
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