Best Supporting Actor
5%
Casey Affleck
The Assassination of Jesse James...
For Him
He brought a creepy magnetism to his shifty killer, cementing his
arrival this year (see also: Gone Baby Gone) as one to watch.
Against Him
At nearly three hours, it's not an easy film to get through,
particularly on DVD. And Javier Bardem is the more vivid villain.
40%
Javier Bardem
No Country for Old Men
For Him
He's got it all: the look (yes, that was his real hair), the catchphrase
(''Call it''), the arsenal of prizes, and the humility with each win. And
his performance was a marvel of venom, mystery, and humor. How can he
lose?
Against Him
Um... he's not 82 like the guy two columns down?
5%
Philip Seymour Hoffman
Charlie Wilson's War
For Him
His hilarious turn as a short-fused CIA agent was one of three terrific
performances in 2007. Voters looking to reward something funny will look
no further.
Against Him
Comedy rarely comes out on top. And it's hard to win on your film's only
nod.
25%
Hal Holbrook
Into the Wild
For Him
He capped a 60-year career with his first nomination for his affecting
turn as a retiree who reaches out to a disillusioned wanderer. Academy
members are often said to vote ''with their hearts.'' In that case, he's a
no-brainer.
Against Him
Compared with Bardem, Holbrook doesn't have much screen time. And the
film received only two nominations.
25%
Tom Wilkinson
Michael Clayton
For Him
As a genius lawyer gone AWOL, he seamlessly vacillated between lucidity
and madness and delivered killer voice-over work as well. Particularly
on repeat viewings, it's a knockout performance.
Against Him
He's absent from the last act, which doesn't keep him fresh in voters'
minds when the credits roll.
Best Supporting Actress
22%
Cate Blanchett
I'm Not There
For Her
Her flawless take on Bob Dylan transcended gimmickry and was one of the
riskiest performances of the year. We dare you to name another
contemporary actress who could have pulled it off.
Against Her
She's already won this category for playing a real person (Katharine
Hepburn, in The Aviator). And let's face it: The film is capital-B
bizarre.
20%
Ruby Dee
American Gangster
For Her
This year's oldest nominee (at 83) packed a wallop literally and
figuratively as Denzel Washington's mother, and she did it with only a
few scenes. If voters go the career-achievement route, the award is hers.
Against Her
An Oscar for a five-minute performance? Even Judi Dench had more screen
time in Shakespeare in Love and that film won Best Picture.
5%
Saoirse Ronan
Atonement
For Her
This year's youngest nominee (at 13) showed astonishing poise as the
precocious storyteller Briony Tallis. Hers was not a performance born
merely of judicious editing; it was a true artistic achievement.
Against Her
She's missing from the second half of the film. And many viewers think
her character is nothing but a lying brat.
25%
Amy Ryan
Gone Baby Gone
For Her
The New York stage veteran ran with author Dennis Lehane's atypical,
unflattering take on a stock role (the kidnapped kid's mom), turning in
a ferocious, sentiment-free turn with a spot-on Boston accent to boot.
Against Her
After winning the broadcast-critics prize over a month ago, she's lost
some momentum. Plus, have all the voters even seen this film?
28%
Tilda Swinton
Michael Clayton
For Her
She showed remarkable vulnerability as an ambitious corporate attorney
and shares a humdinger of a climax with George Clooney. In the most
unpredictable race, she's the movie's best shot at a win, and the
Academy knows it.
Against Her
She lacks Ryan's big ''Oscar scenes,'' the hook of Blanchett's
gender-bending, and Dee's decades-long career.
NEXT PAGE: Our predictions for Best Director
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