To pick my final four, I'm going to start by eliminating the not-quite-plus-size Sarah, because she's too hard for the panel to label, and the panel does not like to be confused. Also, her accordion-straw-wrapper nasal trick makes her a bad role model.

Next, we can eliminate Ebony and Heather, because their story arcs already seem too obvious. Ebony made the fatal mistake of going from hellion with a $500 weave to sympathetic sob sister whose mom was a crack addict in the course of one episode. In other words, her ''journey'' was over before it began. Heather, meanwhile, who looks like a gorgeous cross between Liv Tyler and the chick who climbs out of the TV set in The Ring, has Asperger's syndrome, which will seem fascinating to Nigel, Twiggy, and Tyra until it doesn't. (Also, her ''hey, pretty lady — and Tyra'' comment will not be forgotten.) Miss Jay, I'm guessing, won't get on board with Heather, either, because he won't be able to pronounce ''Asperger's,'' and because it's ultimately not ''fierce'' to have it. (Side rant: Am I alone in the feeling that there was enough of flubber-mouthed, self-amused Miss Jay in tonight's episode to last the entire season?)

On the flip side, Kimberly and Saleisha (who I'd say is possibly the most naturally beautiful woman ever to appear on this show) seem far too normal and well adjusted to be good Top Model ''characters.'' But then again, seeing that the latter is a former graduate of Tyra's T-Zone camp, what else would you expect? I'm also going to bump Chantal from consideration because she described herself as a ''perfect little Southern Barbie doll,'' and that kind of blew her chances right there. And also she looks a little more like my niece's busted-up old Barbie than a new one right out of the box. Come on! It's true!

Finally, I caught glimpses of hatred in Tyra's eyes tonight when she dealt with Jenah, Ambreal, and Mila. Jenah received ''the look'' when she bragged, ''I am beautiful. And I'm smart. I know stuff. I read books. I can play beer pong. I party with guys.'' Ambreal got it when she tried to out-runway Tyra during her initial panel session. And Mila caught it when she refused to admit she'd felt vulnerable or cried at any point in her completely charmed life. (Cut to Tyra's cycle 9 to-do list: ''Send that grinning blond beast into an emotional tailspin.'')

That leaves me wagering on a final four of Bianca, Victoria, Lisa, and Janet. Yes, Bianca has no eyebrows, but her rant about Ebony's pricey weave, and its relation to her own $25 hair, was the episode's comedic pinnacle. Yale student Victoria (who also has eyebrow issues) seems poised to play the role of the finalist whose motivations are suspect, since she entered the contest as a joke. Lisa, meanwhile, packs a one-two-three punch of stunning looks, a history of foster care, and time logged as a ''bikini dancer.'' Or, as Mr. Jay singsongily put it, ''Her vulnerability intrigues me!'' Finally, there's Janet, who's already handled Tyra's nether regions, and more importantly, lived to tell about it.

Who are your early picks for the final four? Who will benefit most from makeover week? Was there any eliminated hopeful you wish had made the top 13? And was I alone in initially mistaking Jaslene for Janice Dickinson when they first showed her on the beach?

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