How much of a share? That's apparently the rub. Details of the talks are obviously not public, but the producers have reportedly offered 1.2 percent for streaming video only. Hardly a windfall, but at this point, the studios insist, there isn't all that much in the pot to share. Sure, Disney has sold about 2 million movies via iTunes in the last year, and virtually every network series now includes a Web component, pulling in a few million in ad revenue. But so far nobody in Hollywood has figured out how to get really rich on the Internet. If the writers and producers agree on one thing, however, it's that someday somebody will — and they both want to be there with their wallets open. ''We're in uncharted territory,'' says Nick Counter, head of the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers, which represents the studios and networks in the negotiations. ''We don't know what the business models are going to be — they've been changing every couple of years. And it's not just the writers. The actors and directors have contracts coming up too [in June].'' If the writers prevail now, you can be sure those actors and directors will not take no for an answer.
The last time writers and producers were this angry at one another — back in 1988 — it set off a strike that lasted more than five months, ruined two TV seasons (some shows, like Moonlighting, never recovered), and cost the industry an estimated half billion dollars in lost revenues. Times have changed, of course, but not in ways that would encourage a quick settlement. The studios and networks have deeper pockets now — they're all owned by larger corporations, with NBC and Universal merely divisions of General Electric, for instance — and could endure a walkout longer. As one high-level studio executive puts it, ''GE has more reasons to worry about a lightbulb workers' strike than a screenwriters' strike.'' Also, this time industry execs prepared in advance, stockpiling reality TV shows and rushing films into production in the last several months. ''We're not going to be the ones who lose our houses,'' says another studio exec. If the strike lingers, though, a lot of writers might. Yet 90 percent voted last month to authorize it. ''This fight is for our survival,'' says Collateral screenwriter Stuart Beattie. ''Everyone's going to be watching their shows on the Internet. If we don't take a stand to get paid for that, then we're never going to make any money at all. Our backs are up against the wall.''
In these early days of the walkout, anything could happen. It's possible that by the time you read this, a deal will have already been announced. But what if the strike grinds on as long as some insiders are predicting — three to six months — or even longer? You don't need a Hollywood screenwriter to outline that doomsday scenario. It would be a tragedy — in three acts, naturally — filled with conflict, suspense, and not a little suffering. We're still not sure about the ending, but here's the pitch...
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