Oscars: Will the Show Go On?

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4. Oscar Loses His Stars
If the Academy and the WGA cannot reach an agreement, the WGA could picket the ceremony, which would mean that almost no actors would attend. ''I am a member of six unions, and I will not cross any picket lines ever,'' George Clooney declared as he walked the red carpet at the Critics Choice Awards on Jan. 7. He's not alone. Hollywood is perhaps the richest union town in the world. (During the 1980 actors' strike, the only major actor to show up to the Emmys was Powers Boothe.) And today, the writers are just the first to face off against the AMPTP. The Directors Guild is about to begin negotiations with the AMPTP too, followed in June by SAG. For all three, there is safety in numbers. As such, the actors insist they will stick by their ink-stained brothers and sisters. ''I am completely in support of the writers,'' Angelina Jolie told EW. ''If they're boycotting, I am boycotting.''

So what does all this solidarity stuff mean? With no stars and no writers, the Academy could choose not to broadcast the show at all and hold the Oscars privately, or with only print and Internet press allowed. Cates insists a telecast is the only option. In that case, ABC might air the show in a shortened format while Stewart improvises jokes to an (empty?) Kodak Theatre. Cates seems prepared for some version of this scenario. ''I'm sure if the WGA contract negotiations are not successful, that will reflect itself on the show, just as the Iraq war did,'' he says. The results would be devastating for the show's ratings, which have been in general decline for a decade. And the financial ripple effect could be massive. The Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation estimates that a Globes-like scale-back of the Oscars could cost Hollywood's local economy $130 million. (For more, see our Hollywood Insider interview with Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation's chief economist Jack Kyser about the writers' strike's economic cost.) No stars means no red carpet, which means potential lost revenue not only for networks like E! but for limo drivers, hoteliers, restaurateurs, and jewelers — and most of all the fashion press, stylists, and clothing designers. It's not that stars pay for their gowns (heaven forbid), but that the right gown on the right star can launch a designer's career. ''It's really important for a lesser-known designer, like the year Elie Saab did Halle Berry,'' says stylist Robert Verdi, referring to the embroidered burgundy dress Berry wore the year she won the Oscar. ''It's a make-it-or-break-it world.''

5. Oscar Gets Axed
Worst case, worried that very few viewers would want to see Stewart squirm in front of a celeb-free house at the Kodak, ABC could cancel the telecast and replace it with a Globes-like press conference. Maybe it'd be followed by, say, a special 20/20, featuring Diane Sawyer doing taped interviews with nominated actors — assuming they'd even come to play (more than a few did for the taped version of CBS' People's Choice Awards that aired Jan. 8). Still, it's doubtful that ABC will go the press-conference route. Any version of the ceremony would be preferable: People will always want to see who wins one of the most coveted awards in the world. Even striking writers may find themselves glued to the television. ''Of course I'll watch,'' says Vilanch with a laugh. ''It's the Oscars!''

Additional reporting by Carrie Bell, Lindsay Soll, and Adam B. Vary

More from the EW 2008 Oscar Preview:
Dave Karger's 2008 Oscar Predictions
Keira Knightley and James McAvoy Talk ''Atonement''