Tonys 2008: Predicting the Winners

BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A PLAY
Kevin Adams, The 39 Steps
Howard Harrison, Macbeth
Donald Holder, Les Liaisons Dangereuses
Ann G. Wrightson, August: Osage County
Winner: The 39 Steps Spoiler: Macbeth
The lighting in Macbeth was spooky, but how could anyone not give it to 39 Steps? It uses pantomime and shadows and projections to tell the story — the lighting is essential to the production.

BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
Ken Billington, Sunday in the Park With George
Howell Binkley, In the Heights
Donald Holder, Rodgers & Hammerstein's South Pacific
Natasha Katz, The Little Mermaid
Winner: South Pacific Spoiler: Sunday in the Park With George
People love to vote a straight ticket in design categories. Also, Holder's design is really inseparable from Michael Yeargan's set. But this could be Sunday's best shot.

BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A PLAY
Simon Baker, Boeing-Boeing
Adam Cork, Macbeth
Ian Dickinson, Rock 'n' Roll
Mic Pool, The 39 Steps
Winner: The 39 Steps Spoiler: Rock 'n' Roll
This is a new category; honestly, I think voters don't know what to make of it. Rule out Boeing. Any of the others could win.

BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
Acme Sound Partners, In the Heights
Sebastian Frost, Sunday in the Park With George
Scott Lehrer, Rodgers & Hammerstein's South Pacific
Dan Moses Schreier, Gypsy
Winner: South Pacific Spoiler: None
A plane flies overhead, and a pivotal monologue is delivered via radio. Isn't that enough?

BEST CHOREOGRAPHY
Rob Ashford, Cry-Baby
Andy Blankenbuehler, In the Heights
Christopher Gattelli, Rodgers & Hammerstein's South Pacific
Dan Knechtges, Xanadu
Winner: Cry-Baby Spoiler: In the Heights
Ashford and Blankenbuehler were singled out in just about every review. Heights' steps are so fresh, like everything else in the show. But Cry-Baby's prison-yard license-plate dance alone wins it for Ashford.

BEST ORCHESTRATIONS
Jason Carr, Sunday in the Park With George
Alex Lacamoire & Bill Sherman, In the Heights
Stew & Heidi Rodewald, Passing Strange
Jonathan Tunick, A Catered Affair
Winner: Passing Strange Spoiler: In the Heights
Often, this goes with the Best Score winner. But I suspect people who are voting for Heights there will see Orchestrations as a way to acknowledge Strange's music.

BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY
Boeing-Boeing
The Homecoming
Les Liaisons Dangereuses
Macbeth
Winner: Boeing-Boeing Spoiler: Macbeth
I'm giving Boeing a very slight edge because it's still open, and Stewart's win would be Macbeth's prize.

BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL
Grease
Gypsy
Rodgers & Hammerstein's South Pacific
Sunday in the Park With George
Winner: South Pacific Spoiler: Sunday in the Park With George
Though I think it's a little ridiculous that they thought they had to call it ''Rodgers and Hammerstein's'' South Pacific — what, like people didn't know? — it has a major edge. It's an astounding achievement. That 30-piece orchestra alone is reason enough. (Incidentally, the CD sounds spectacular.) Lately, I've heard a lot of buzz about Sunday, but this is SP's to lose.

BEST DIRECTION OF A PLAY
Maria Aitken, The 39 Steps
Conor McPherson, The Seafarer
Anna D. Shapiro, August: Osage County
Matthew Warchus, Boeing-Boeing
Winner: Anna D. Shapiro Spoiler: Conor McPherson
Playwright/director McPherson poses a small threat; recognizing him here is a way to recognize his stunning drama. But Shapiro will ride the August wave — and deservedly so. Wrangling that three-hour-and-20-minute drama was no small feat. Also, I think we're ready to see another woman win! There are only four others: Julie Taymor, Garry Hynes, Susan Stroman, and Mary Zimmerman.

BEST DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL
Sam Buntrock, Sunday in the Park With George
Thomas Kail, In the Heights
Arthur Laurents, Gypsy
Bartlett Sher, Rodgers & Hammerstein's South Pacific
Winner: Bartlett Sher Spoiler: None
Without Sher, SP wouldn't be the enchanted evening that it is.