POSSIBLE FUTURE NO. 1: The Big Comeback
Though Spears looked positively clownish during her infamously dismal performance at the 2007 MTV Video Music Awards, Circus just might reestablish the singer as pop's preeminent ringmistress. ''It's the start of a huge comeback,'' says Dr. Luke (Kelly Clarkson, Katy Perry), who produced three of Circus' tracks, including the title song. The good doctor could be a little biased, of course, but more objective industry insiders are also predicting big things, especially given the success of first single ''Womanizer,'' which topped the Billboard Hot 100 chart in October and currently sits at No. 7. ''I can't get the freakin' hook out of my head,'' says Michael McCoy, program director at Columbus, Ohio, top 40 station WNCI. ''I think Circus is going to come out pretty healthy.'' Early radio play suggests this album might well outperform Blackout. ''We're playing the song in power rotation,'' says Sharon Dastur, program director at New York's Z100. ''We actually did have a lot of success with three songs from Blackout. 'Womanizer' seemed to grow faster than those did.''
Released in October of 2007, Blackout followed directly on the heels of Spears' MTV fiasco, hitting at the peak of her highly public custody battle with Kevin Federline over their two young sons. The besieged star did little to promote the disc, and despite respectable first-week sales of 290,000 copies, it failed to match the success of her previous albums. What's more, many purchasers may have bought the collection out of sheer prurient interest: What kind of music does an apparently troubled person make in between shaving her head and beating a car with an umbrella?
Circus, ironically enough, comes at a time when the Britney carnival seems to have left town. ''There's less of a slowing-down-at-a-car-accident aspect this time,'' says Tim Quirk, vice president of programming for the digital music service Rhapsody. ''We're seeing very similar numbers for her as we are seeing for the Jonas Brothers, and that should be good news for her record company. You say 'Jonas Brothers,' record companies are happy.''
And this time Spears seems committed to getting behind her new collection. She made a happier appearance at this year's VMAs and duetted with Madonna during the Material Girl's Nov. 6 Dodger Stadium show. On Nov. 30, MTV will broadcast a 90-minute documentary, Britney: For the Record, which was made with the singer's cooperation. And Spears is set to perform on Good Morning America the day the disc debuts. She has reportedly said she intends to hit the road in support of the CD next year, something she hasn't attempted since 2004's aborted Onyx Hotel Tour. ''Blackout was a great album,'' says Tom Carrabba, executive vice president of Spears' label, Jive. ''But there were other parts of her life that she had to focus on. Now she's given us the time and the focus.''
The album should also benefit from a pre-Christmas release date, and retailers seem confident that Spears can help make the season a festive one. ''When you look at her schedule, there's endless things lined up that seem to be driving the album,'' says Andrew Gyger, senior music product manager for the Virgin Megastore chain. ''It's the Britney people want to see, and they want to support her.''
NEXT PAGE: Possible Future No. 2: Road Warrior
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