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Best-Picture_l
Pitt: Merrick Morton; Bale: Stephen Vaughan; Langella: Ralph Nelson; Penn: Phil Bray; Patel: Ishika Mohan
By Dave Karger
Dave Karger
Dave Karger
Dave Karger, a senior writer at EW, also reports on box office and other movie- related matters on NBC's ''Today''

BEST PICTURE
At this point, you can put money on The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Slumdog Millionaire, Milk, and Frost/Nixon to make the cut. The fifth slot, leaving out dark horses like Revolutionary Road (too depressing), The Reader (too controversial), and WALL-E (too...cartoony), is looking like a race between two very different contenders: Doubt and The Dark Knight. The intimate, powerful Doubt racked up the most Screen Actors Guild nominations — but then again, so did Oscar also-ran Into the Wild last year. If Doubt fails to excite the non-acting majority of the Academy, a certain commercial and critical smash might just end up with a Best Picture nod to add to its half-billion dollar gross.

BEST ACTOR
The pre-Oscar awards have been dominated by Sean Penn, Mickey Rourke, and Frank Langella. Brad Pitt should join that trio, as part of Benjamin Button's large overall tally. Leonardo DiCaprio was considered an early favorite — until Revolutionary Road was met with apathy from critics. The Screen Actors Guild recognized the very deserving Richard Jenkins for The Visitor, but we've learned never to count out Clint Eastwood when it comes to scoring a last-minute Oscar nomination.

BEST ACTRESS
The three sure things are Meryl Streep, Anne Hathaway, and Kate Winslet. Beyond that, there are five women fighting for two spots. Kristin Scott Thomas' buzz for I've Loved You So Long seems to be fading, and Benjamin Button's Cate Blanchett was overlooked by SAG and the Golden Globes. Frozen River's Melissa Leo is one of the indie standouts of the year, but the Academy may favor Angelina Jolie, whose film has been seen by many more people, and critical fave Sally Hawkins.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Heath Ledger and Philip Seymour Hoffman lead the pack, in a strange echo of the 2005 Best Actor race. Also expect Josh Brolin and Robert Downey Jr. to be rewarded after delivering several strong performances in the last two years. Revolutionary Road's Michael Shannon would've been a sure thing if the film had more support, and Milk's James Franco seems to be overshadowed by Brolin's villainous turn. With Slumdog Millionaire gaining speed by the day, SAG nominee Dev Patel could benefit from all the love.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penélope Cruz, Viola Davis, Taraji P. Henson, and Kate Winslet are all but assured an invite to the Kodak Theatre. Doubt costar Amy Adams scored nominations from the SAG Awards and the Globes but may end up a victim of the Academy's weighted voting system: Fans of the film are likelier to rank Davis as their No. 1 or No. 2 pick. Rachel Getting Married's Rosemarie DeWitt has done well with the critics, but Marisa Tomei's heart-tugging plotline in The Wrestler might win over the most voters.

BEST DIRECTOR
Front-runners David Fincher and Danny Boyle should be joined by Gus Van Sant and Ron Howard, and even if The Dark Knight gets squeezed out of Best Picture, Christopher Nolan is a strong candidate here. The outside possibilities include Happy-Go-Lucky's Mike Leigh, The Wrestler's Darren Aronofsky, Revolutionary Road's Sam Mendes, and in what would be a first for an animated film, WALL-E's Andrew Stanton.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Woody Allen
, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Dustin Lance Black,
 Milk
Mike Leigh, Happy-Go-Lucky
Jenny Lumet, Rachel Getting Married
Andrew Stanton and Jim Reardon
, WALL-E

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Eric Roth, The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
John Patrick Shanley, Doubt
Peter Morgan, 
Frost/Nixon
David Hare, 
The Reader
Simon Beaufoy, 
Slumdog Millionaire

Do you agree or disagree with Dave's predictions for the nominees? Talk back at his OscarWatch blog

More on 2009 Awards:
8 Oscar longshots we love
Golden Globes '09: Pick the TV winners
Golden Globes '09: Pick the movie winners


Posted Dec 30, 2008 | Published in issue #1029 Jan 09, 2009 | Order Article Reprints
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