Tony Awards 2009: Predicting the Winners

SOUND DESIGN OF A PLAY
Paul Arditti, Mary Stuart
Gregory Clarke, Equus
Russell Goldsmith, Exit the King
Scott Lehrer and Leon Rothenberg, Joe Turner's Come and Gone
Winner: Exit the King
Possible spoiler: Joe Turner's Come and Gone
The final scene of Exit the King is all about sound — Susan Sarandon's soothing, disembodied voice guiding Geoffrey Rush's fading monarch to his long-awaited fate. It's positively hypnotic.

SOUND DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
Acme Sound Partners, Hair
Paul Arditti, Billy Elliot, The Musical
Peter Hylenski, Rock of Ages
Brian Ronan, Next to Normal
Winner: Billy Elliot
Possible spoiler: Hair
Voters are still wrestling with this two-year-old category. Generally, it's about where they had the best listening experience: Were the lyrics comprehensible; was everything audible without being ear-popping?

DIRECTOR OF A PLAY
Phyllida Lloyd, Mary Stuart
Bartlett Sher, Joe Turner's Come and Gone
Matthew Warchus, God of Carnage
Matthew Warchus, The Norman Conquests
Winner: Warchus, The Norman Conquests
Possible spoiler: Warchus, God of Carnage
Between Norman and Carnage, there are 10 actors, and 8 of them got Tony nominations; one will win Best Revival, the other will win Best Play. It's all a credit to Warchus, who has three previous noms (Art, True West, Boeing-Boeing) but no trophies. So why does he get it for Norman? Simple — three plays, three times the work.

DIRECTOR OF A MUSICAL
Stephen Daldry, Billy Elliot, The Musical
Michael Greif, Next to Normal
Kristin Hanggi, Rock of Ages
Diane Paulus, Hair
Winner: Stephen Daldry
Possible Spoiler: Diane Paulus
Paulus deserves most the credit for turning a show no one knew they wanted to see again into a must-see. But Daldry had more to wrangle with Billy Elliot — not the least of which was directing multiple actors in the title role.

CHOREOGRAPHY
Karole Armitage, Hair
Andy Blankenbuehler, 9 to 5: The Musical
Peter Darling, Billy Elliot, The Musical
Randy Skinner, Irving Berlin's White Christmas
Winner: Billy Elliot
Possible spoiler: None
Darling — whose work fuses tap, ballet, jazz, modern, and even gymnastics — had this category sewn up from Billy's first pirouette.

ORCHESTRATIONS
Larry Blank, Irving Berlin's White Christmas
Martin Koch, Billy Elliot, The Musical
Michael Starobin and Tom Kitt, Next to Normal
Danny Troob and John Clancy, Shrek The Musical
Winner: Billy Elliot
Possible spoiler: Next to Normal
Score and Orchestrations tend to go together; still, I think Billy has an edge here. It's a way to acknowledge Elton John's terrific compositions. (Many voters think of orchestrations as a best-score consolation prize.)