'Lost' recap: The Man With the Plan

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The Castaways Were Brought To The Island For A Reason
What Smokey Said: Jacob had picked six castaways — Locke, Hurley, Sawyer, Sayid, Jack, Jin or Sun — and meddled with their lives and subverted their destinies and free will in order to corral them to The Island and groom one of them as his replacement as Island protector.
PCIBS: 91% What I didn't believe, though, was this:

The Island Is Meaningless
What Smokey Said: When Sawyer asked why the Island would need protection, Locke snapped: ''From nothing, James. That's the joke. There's nothing to protect it from. It's just a damn island!''
PCIBS: 0% My rejoinders to Smokey would include the following: (1) The Temple's magic healing spring. (2) Frozen donkey wheel time travel magic. (3) That Ghost Kid. (4) Oh, and uh… freakin' YOU, Smokey! Bottom line: The Island is totally special, and my guess is that whatever makes it special will prove to be Jacob's primary defense for playing god with castaway lives.

The Numbers
What Smokey Said: Lost fans, prepare to rethink your Valenzetti Equations. With a dramatic reveal of the cave's ceiling, we learned that Jacob assigned each of his potential replacements a number. He wrote their digits next to their last names on the ceiling of his cave with chalk. Locke: 4; [Hurley] Reyes: 8; [James ''Sawyer''] Ford: 15; [Sayid] Jarrah: 16; [Jack] Shephard: 23; [Jin or Sun?] Kwon: 42. Why? Un-Locke shrugged. ''Jacob had a thing for numbers,'' he said.
PCIBS: 49% It's not that I think Jacob doesn't have a thing for numbers — I just think that Jacob has good reason for assigning numbers to his candidates, and more, that Un-Locke knows what that reason is and isn't telling Sawyer. DEBATE! Where's Kate?

Sawyer's Three Options
What Smokey Said: (1) Sawyer could do nothing, see how the drama plays out, and possibly get his name crossed off the list of candidates. (2) He could accept the job. (3) He could leave the Island with Smokey.
PCIBS: 100% I actually believe he's 100% truthful about the three options, although I'm also 100% sure he didn't tell Sawyer everything he needed to know about each of those options for him to make the most informed choice. Here's what I think Smokey omitted. Option 1: The reason why the names get crossed off when that candidate dies? It's probably because of Smokey's conspiratorial machinations. Option 2: If Sawyer took the job, Smokey would move heaven and hell to find some way to kill him. Option 3: Leaving the Island will obliterate the entire Island world reality, or delete from the history of the world the specific lifelines of the castaways that lave, PLUS the lifelines of anyone inextricably intertwined with those lifelines. Whatever Smokey has up its butt, I think he has a (quantum) suicide wish.

Sawyer's Response To Smokey's Offer
What Was Said: ''So what do you say, James?'' Smokey asked. ''Are you ready to go home?'' Sawyer replied, ''Hell yes.''
Possible Chance I Believe Sawyer: 0% Because I believe as heartbroken and furious as Sawyer may be… he ain't betraying the castaways to this monster. I think the minute Sawyer saw that ghost kid — that dead ringer for himself when he was a kid — and saw Un-Locke chase after him and then return without him, Sawyer made up his mind that this Fake Locke was one freakin' scary creep and needed to be brought down. Why didn't Sawyer put a bullet in him when had a chance? Because he needs to do what the Monster did to Locke: study him, observe him, figure out his weaknesses and how he can be mortally attacked, and then do so. In other words, Sawyer is doing what Sawyer does best: he's pulling a long con, the riskiest con he's ever pulled: fooling the devil into thinking he has an ally — and then stabbing him in the back with his own pitchfork. [Editor's note: my ''Totally Lost'' co-host Dan Snierson just informed me that my 0% assessment was ''crazy talk'' and demanded I increase my percentage to a more plausible... 2.7%. DONE!]

And on that note, I sign off. I know there's tons of stuff I forgot, from the Jacob ash that Ilana scooped up out the Four Toed fire pit to commenting on Sideways Locke's alarm clock, which sounded just like the klaxon in the Hatch. See? I mentioned it! But perhaps we can talk about it some more on Twitter today around 12 PM PST/3 PM EST @ewdocjensen.

Until then: Namaste!