But the clear leader of this PC pack is psychologist Dr. Phil McGraw. Best known for dispensing tough love on ''Oprah'' every Tuesday (spiking the show's ratings roughly 20 percent), he's also had two books top the New York Times bestseller list. But even those sterling credentials -- not to mention Oprah's stamp of approval -- do not guarantee success. ''There's no way of knowing if his approach will be palatable five days a week, and we don't know how much Oprah's presence is drawing viewers,'' says Stacey Lynn Koerner, senior VP of broadcast research at Initiative Media North America. ''Even though Oprah has taken herself off the stage during his segments, she's still a presence, which can't be underestimated.''
Also new to talk is Caroline Rhea, the ''Sabrina the Teenage Witch'' star who will be taking over O'Donnell's chair later this year. But Rhea, whose own daytime bid fizzled in the pilot stage last year, is no sure thing. Yes, she inherits an established show, but not necessarily Rosie's timeslots. ''Schedules aren't set yet, but in some locations she'll probably be running in a late night slot instead of Rosie's late morning period,'' says Carroll. Rhea must also grapple with huge expectations, which her predecessor never faced: ''The Rosie O'Donnell Show'' replaced Carnie Wilson's flop talker in 1996, so expectations were very low.
Of the two, the already-omnipresent Dr. Phil seems a surer bet. ''Since Sept. 11, we've seen more interest in returning series than new series overall, and that has to do with people wanting to watch what's familiar and comfortable,'' notes Koerner. But whether even he can revive interest in the daytime talk genre is anybody's guess. Over the last several years, few new programs have stuck despite high-profile hosts (Iyanla, Queen Latifah, Donny and Marie, Dr. Laura) and plenty of hoopla. ''There are seven talk shows premiering, and if none of them are successful, it's going to be an uphill battle for the genre,'' says Carroll. ''But if one or two break out, we're in the game again.'' As Letterman says, it's not Oprah til' it's Oprah.
