BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Samantha Morton, Judy Davis, Mira Sorvino, Dianne Wiest — all got Oscar attention for turns in Woody Allen films, so don't rule out Elaine May's talked-about spot as Tracey Ullman's ditzy cousin in Small Time Crooks. The late Madeline Kahn's final role in the well-reviewed indie Judy Berlinmight get some notice. As for the sterling supporting women of Where the Heart Is — Stockard Channing, Joan Cusack — their chances looked good on paper. Then the film came out. And when bad movies happen to good actresses, the Academy generally takes a pass. ''It should have been a Steel Magnolias-[caliber] ensemble film,'' says Dergarabedian, citing the flick that earned Roberts a 1990 supporting nod. It wasn't.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Some real contenders here. Voters may reward Joaquin Phoenix's hot-for-sister turn as Gladiator's Emperor Commodus — but will more likely endorse the late Oliver Reed in the same film. ''It was the first time he'd been outstanding in so long,'' says a rival studio exec. ''Unfortunately he died, but we won't hold that against him.'' Quadruple nominee Albert Finney is favored for the Michael Caine longevity nod as Erin Brockovich's stern-but-sweet boss. Bill Murray — who was widely seen as robbed of a nom for 1998's Rushmore — may get payback for his Polonius in Hamlet: ''Not only is he due,'' says Hamlet producer Andrew Fierberg, ''he does just what a supporting actor should do: support.''

AND THE REST
Tom Cruise's obscure art flick M:I-2 will probably garner some technical nominations (sound, editing, visual effects, etc.). Matthew McConaughey's sub drama, U-571, and the magnificent Gladiator are players too — particularly in the aural area. ''Anything of a war nature usually gets noticed for sound because you have so much going on,'' says consultant Tony Angellotti, president of the Angellotti Co. ''They really go to town with those.'' And don't count out Norm Macdonald's Screwedfor Best Original Screenplay. The kidding never stops!


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