Picks, Misses & Pickets

New Line

Rank 9 Market Share 5.2% The Story So Far A discouraging year for Warner's sister studio was epitomized by Adam Sandler's $80 million Little Nicky, which grossed a mere $39.5 million domestically -- and was promptly scapegoated for Time Warner's slack fourth quarter. But misses like the $35 million Winona Ryder thriller Lost Souls also bedeviled New Line's bottom line; even the studio's Oscar bid, the costly and underperforming Thirteen Days, struck out. In January, after the merger of AOL and Time Warner, the studio was shaken by 100 layoffs and the forced resignation of production head Michael De Luca. His replacement, Toby Emmerich, head of New Line's music division -- and author of modest hit Frequency -- is now the man in the hot seat. The Game Plan New Line has clamped a $50 million budget cap on its films -- with most expected to land closer to $30 million. Exceptions will be made for sequels (they're in the works for Rush Hour, Final Destination, Blade, Austin Powers, and Ice Cube's booming Friday franchise). While rumors abound that the studio will revert to its cheap-thrill Freddy Krueger roots, literary projects like the Dave Eggers memoir A Heartbreaking Work of Staggering Genius have big question marks over them. High Hopes New Line's big bet for the next three years is the $270 million Lord of the Rings trilogy, a huge gamble offset by myriad distribution and merchandising deals. And the Hollywood-meets-virtual-reality spoof Simone, directed by Truman Show scribe Andrew Niccol and starring Al Pacino and Catherine Keener, could be a classy reprieve from teen flicks. Trouble Spots If the first installment of Lord of the Ringsbombs, Nos. 2 and 3 turn into very expensive duds. The relatively green Emmerich may prove less of a talent magnet than De Luca -- in which case New Line can bid adieu to the likes of Paul Thomas Anderson. But Emmerich also has to deal with less savory De Luca leftovers -- like the $80 million Town & Country, which will (for better or worse) emerge from its three-year gestation this April. -- Gillian Flynn

MGM

Rank 10 Market Share 1.3% The Story So Far For the first time in ages, MGM has a hit with a hero who doesn't wear a tuxedo and sip vodka martinis -- he wears a hockey mask and sips Chianti. But even before Hannibal, the Lion had been quietly trying to turn itself around. So quietly, in fact, that it released just eight pictures in 2000 (top earners: Autumn in New York and Return to Me, neither of which cracked $40 million in the U.S.). Yet MGM reported its first profit in more than a decade -- $51 million, compared to $530 million in losses in 1999 -- thanks in part to 007 TV licensing fees and DVD sales. Meanwhile, new management team Chris McGurk and Alex Yemenidjian hatched coproducing deals (such as the one that gives Universal half of Hannibal) and signed marquee talent (Francis Ford Coppola will produce 10 films for United Artists, recently reincarnated as MGM's specialty division). The Game Plan After last year's nap, MGM is stretching with its most ambitious slate in years. The studio is releasing 20 big pictures in 2001 (most coproduced with other companies), including a John Woo WWII drama (Windtalkers), a Martin Lawrence comedy (What's the Worst That Could Happen?), a Bruce Willis prison-camp drama (Hart's War), and an effects-laden sci-fi remake (Rollerball). High Hopes All of the above plus Heartbreakers, a comedy that brings together two names we never expected to type in the same sentence: Jennifer Love Hewitt and Sigourney Weaver. Trouble Spots We've heard MGM sing "We're back!" before -- and then it releases a movie like The Mod Squad. It may have signed bigger stars this time around, but that doesn't always translate to bigger box office. MGM still has a reputation as a last stop for passed-around scripts, and its distribution skills are less than deft -- last month, the studio pushed Original Sin to August after posters advertising a Feb. 23 release were already up in major cities. -- Benjamin Svetkey

MARKET SHARE SOURCE: THE HOLLYWOOD REPORTER