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IF YOU THINK OF the New York and L.A. film critics' awards as equivalent to the Iowa presidential caucuses, and the Golden Globes as a kind of New Hampshire primary followed by lots of polling in scattered jurisdictions (the Screen Actors Guild, the Directors Guild, the Producers Guild), it's obvious that the apex of Hollywood's self-congratulatory season -- the Academy Awards ceremony -- is the general election. But in truth, the Oscars work like a Super Tuesday Night, with spoilers and long shots still hanging in, hoping to divide the vote and conquer.
The political metaphor didn't much apply last year, when the Forrest Gump landslide was a foregone conclusion. But this year, it's showbiz as usual. Among Academy members, there's a patriotic Apollo 13 contingent that's irked about director Ron Howard's getting snubbed. There are fervent Leaving Las Vegas fans who can't understand how it missed the Best Picture circle. The grass roots will be torn up if Mel Gibson doesn't win for Braveheart. And when the envelopes are finally opened March 25, some folks won't be surprised if a little pig goes a long way.
BEST ACTOR
NICOLAS CAGE FOR HIM: Prepare to toast Cage, who's been on an awards bender for his bravura performance as a man drinking himself to death in Leaving Las Vegas. Oscar should be one more for the road. AGAINST HIM: Only the whiff of decadence coming off Vegas -- conservative Academy voters do like a chaser of redemption. ODDS: 3-5
RICHARD DREYFUSS FOR HIM: He shed 20 years, then grew old, playing a music teacher in Mr. Holland's Opus. Like John Travolta last year, Dreyfuss, 48, is the comeback kid, returning 19 years after his last nomination -- and win -- as Best Actor for The Goodbye Girl. AGAINST HIM: He didn't die in the end, and even Travolta didn't win. ODDS: 16-1
ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR HIM: In a marathon performance, he went beyond impersonation to make Nixon's Tricky Dick truly human -- no small trick for the one Brit in this race. AGAINST HIM: A human Nixon? Some Academy members refuse to entertain the thought. Plus, he won a 1991 Oscar for playing another strange character, Hannibal Lecter. ODDS: 20-1
SEAN PENN FOR HIM: Always compelling on screen, he got to play the year's most extended death scene as the convicted murderer facing lethal injection in Dead Man Walking. His peers would like to see him act more. AGAINST HIM: The Brando of his generation, Penn is a prickly personality who doesn't cuddle up to the industry. ODDS: 6-1
MASSIMO TROISI FOR HIM: Talk about dedication to your craft. Postponing a needed heart operation, the Italian comic actor literally gave his life to complete The Postman, a tender tearjerker of a movie on its own. AGAINST HIM: Yes, he died, but Academy voters barely knew him. How sentimental can they really be expected to get? ODDS: 8-1
THE LOWDOWN: Everyone should relax and have a cocktail. With Penn and Troisi splitting the competition, prohibitive favorite Cage rolls to victory.
