Win, Place & Show

CLINT EASTWOOD (UNFORGIVEN) Pluses: Won Director's Guild award, the conventional predictor of success in this category (+40), and L.A. Film Critics award for Best Director (+10). Has gone the distance to prove he's an artist — and succeeded (+37). First time one of his spiky directorial labors of love has dovetailed with his immense commercial appeal (+14). Minuses: Best Actor win may torpedo Best Director chances — but don't bet on it (-10). Total: 91 points

MARTIN BREST (SCENT OF A WOMAN) Pluses: None. He's a reliable director of two above-average commercial successes (Beverly Hills Cop and Midnight Run), but he seems stunningly out of place in this company (+0). Minuses: He's not a living legend, a tony Brit, or a maverick (-0). Total: 0 points

Best Picture

THE CRYING GAME
Pluses: Immense amount of publicity and goodwill surrounding surprise success story (+42). Film's appeal has broadened beyond art houses (+16). Won L.A. Film Critics Best Foreign Film award (+10). Producer Stephen Woolley won Producers Guild award (+10). Minuses: Film's hype cooling down (-19). Subject matter may still be too outre for mainstream Academy tastes (-18). Total: 41 points

UNFORGIVEN
Pluses: Long-awaited merging of Eastwood the mass-appeal star and Eastwood the eccentric director (+46). Eastwood has never been nominated before (+33). Won L.A. Film Critics award and National Society of Film Critics award (+10 each). Resurrects beloved genre with historically correct antiviolence critique (+20) — and lots of violence (+15). Minuses: Only two Westerns, Cimarron and Dances With Wolves, have won Best Picture (-31). An easy film to admire, but not an easy one to like (-26). Total: 77 points

A FEW GOOD MEN
Pluses: The only good old-fashioned Hollywood blockbuster on the list (+32). A win here would make up for snub in Best Director category (+21). Snob appeal for being adapted from hit Broadway play (+5). Minuses: Overkill Factor — hailed as the Oscar front-runner even before it was released (-28). Meathead Factor — movies directed by former sitcom stars (Rob Reiner, Penny Marshall, Ron Howard) make money but don't get respect (-9). Between the Brits and Clint Eastwood, there's no place for a solid middlebrow smash (-12). Total: 9 points

HOWARDS END
Pluses: Masterpiece Theatre Effect, compounded — it's from England, it's based on an E.M. Forster novel, it's by Merchant/Ivory (+52). Has been the film to beat for much of 1992 (+20). Won Best Picture from National Board of Review (+10). Merchant/Ivory's recent production deal with Disney anoints them with most-favored-indie status (+8). Minuses: Spoilage Factor — film has been around for a while (-35). Academy could give End the same coffee-table awards (Costumes, Art Direction, etc.) won by A Room With a View (-30). Total: 25 points

SCENT OF A WOMAN
Pluses: Audience pleaser that opened late in the year and was fresh in voters' minds (+35). Won Golden Globe for Best Drama (+10). Minuses: Overlong film is nearly universally seen as out of its league here (-23). Golden Globe made the award look bad rather than the movie look good, due to allegations that voters were influenced by Universal's all-expenses-paid junket (-15). Total: 7 points