Odds on Oscar

BEST DIRECTOR
Francis Ford Coppola for The Godfather Part III
PLUSES Nominated for Directors Guild award +25; career comeback +30; household name +5; sentiment (fought back from bankruptcy) +15
MINUSES Already won several Oscars for Godfather Parts I and II -17; Parts I and II far superior -30
TOTAL: 28 Points

Kevin Costner for Dances with Wolves
PLUSES Nominated for Directors Guild award +25; winner of National Board of Review and Golden Globe awards +20; could be part of a Dances sweep +38; made an epic on a moderate budget +20; handsome leading-men-turned-directors have good track record (Robert Redford, Warren Beatty) +6
MINUSES Successful at too many things (envy factor) -30
TOTAL: 79 Points

Stephen Frears for The Grifters
PLUSES Voters might be in the mood for a major upset +20
MINUSES No Directors Guild nomination -50; nihilistic film -34
TOTAL: -64 Points

Barbet Schroeder for Reversal of Fortune
PLUSES Voters might be in the mood for a major upset +20
MINUSES No Directors Guild nomination -50; cold film -32
TOTAL: -62 Points

Martin Scorsese for Goodfellas
PLUSES Nominated for Directors Guild award +25; winner of New York, Los Angeles, and National Society of Film Critics awards +20; third nomination and has not won +19; held in high esteem by the industry +15; sentiment (lost Oscar for Raging Bull to another movie-star-turned-first-time-director, Robert Redford (for Ordinary People) and voters may not want history to repeat itself) +6
MINUSES Violent film -24
TOTAL: 61 Points

Critic's Choice
In Reversal of Fortune, Barbet Schroeder turned a grisly tabloid tale into a work of art — an ambiguous comic tapestry about the nature of guilt.

BEST PICTURE
Awakenings
PLUSES Subject matter — humanistic interpersonal relationships drama — always big with voters (Driving Miss Daisy, Rain Man, Terms of Endearment) +32
MINUSES Not nominated for Best Director -50; disappointing box office -28; mixed critical reaction -27
TOTAL: -73 Points

Dances with Wolves
PLUSES Winner of Golden Globe (Drama) +32; epic quality +33; politically correct choice due to subject matter (Native American history) +22; box office success +28; 12 nominations indicate wide support +24
MINUSES Mixed critical reaction -24; only one Western has ever won (Cimarron, 1931) -14; subtitles -6
TOTAL: 95 Points

Ghost
PLUSES Desire to slap critics in the face +20
MINUSES No Best Director nomination -50; too successful at box office (envy factor) -10; mixed critical reaction -31
TOTAL: -71 Points

The Godfather Part III
PLUSES Family drama a popular Academy genre +24; continuity f the two earlier Godfather movies winning +28
MINUSES Inferior to the two earlier Godfather movies -19; disappointing box office -23
TOTAL: 10 Points

Goodfellas
PLUSES Winner of New York, Los Angeles, and National Society of Film Critics awards +49
MINUSES Too violent -24
TOTAL: 25 Points

Critic's Choice
I'd personally give it to Reversal of Fortune, but for sheer emotional sweep The Godfather Part III outpowers every other nominee here.