Who'll win a Tony for best musical?Count out ''Amour'' and ''Frog and Toad'' right off the bat, although ''Frog and Toad'' is a perfectly charming children's musical. (Children's musical. Enough said.) I've heard about the ''Hairspray'' backlash -- it's too big, too brassy, too happy, too much of a hit. And then there's the ''Movin' Out'' backlash -- modern dance plus Billy Joel songs does not make a musical. But the bottom line is this: ''Hairspray'' is a great, fun show (Winokur and Fierstein, pictured above). It's the only traditional, old-fashioned Broadway musical in this category. And it will do amazingly well on tour, which the Tony voters -- many of whom are producers and theater owners from across the country -- count on. Plus, maybe they'll let John Waters give the acceptance speech, and that would be a hoot!