Dave Karger sizes up the Best Supporting Actor race
Predicted Winner Tim Robbins, ''Mystic River''
Possible Upsets Alec Baldwin, ''The Cooler''; Djimon Hounsou, ''In America''
No Way Benicio Del Toro, ''21 Grams''; Ken Watanabe, ''The Last Samurai''
Wannabe Oscar winners should follow the example of Tim Robbins, who's been one of the classiest performers to navigate his way through the manic awards season. The ''Mystic River'' star gave thoughtful and substantive speeches at the Broadcast Critics, Golden Globe, and SAG awards without appearing the least bit self-righteous. Though this category features several worthy first-time nominees (notably Alec Baldwin and Djimon Hounsou), the combination of Robbins' performances in the film and on the awards-show stages, he should prevail.