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At this point, you can put money on The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Slumdog Millionaire, Milk, and Frost/Nixon to make the cut. The fifth slot, leaving out dark horses like Revolutionary Road (too depressing), The Reader (too controversial), and WALL-E (too...cartoony), is looking like a race between two very different contenders: Doubt and The Dark Knight. The intimate, powerful Doubt racked up the most Screen Actors Guild nominations but then again, so did Oscar also-ran Into the Wild last year. If Doubt fails to excite the non-acting majority of the Academy, a certain commercial and critical smash might just end up with a Best Picture nod to add to its half-billion dollar gross.
Oscars 2009
81 years of Oscar! Coverage of this year's awards (Feb. 22)
Oscars '09: Dave Karger Predicts...
It's time to stop messing around and answer the toughest question: Who's going to get nominated? EW's tireless awards-expert separates the contenders from the pretenders. See his picks, then go to Dave Karger's OscarWatch blog and post your predictions

Oscars '09: Dave Karger Predicts...
Pitt: Merrick Morton; Bale: Stephen Vaughan; Langella: Ralph Nelson; Penn: Phil Bray; Patel: Ishika Mohan
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